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COVID Case-to-death Lag

Deaths in WA jumped from 10 to 18 in the 7-day moving average on Jan 6 from Jan 5 (with counts of 48 and 65 on the 4ths and 6th). We’re just at the 2-week mark since the case spike.

Cases (from New York Times via Google)
Deaths (from New York Times via Google)

Here is a research paper on the estimated lag between cases and deaths: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33709641/

“Results: The average lag between daily Covid-19 cases and deaths was 8.053 days with a standard deviation of 4.116 days for nineteen regions. After excluding data from three more regions due to unavailable age data, the regression yielded an equation of lag = 14.015 – 0.153 (% cases above 60[yrs of age]) with a p-value of 0.066. Because the p-value of 0.066 is lower than the 0.10 significance level, there is evidence that a relationship exists between the lag and the age of cases.

Conclusions: The results show that regions must remain vigilant when Covid-19 cases rapidly increase without similar increases in deaths since there exists a significant lag between the two. Additionally, a younger demographic of cases may lead to an increased lag, further pushing regions into a false sense of security that should be avoided.” (emphasis added)

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+58 Cases